Bitcoin Bull and Bear Scenarios Analyses
Uncertainty, Low Volume, and Chop
Has been the motto post market close on Friday.
The SEC statement and actions against 1Broker shook the market and Bitcoin’s price as Bitcoin took a small beating after a strong attempted rally.
Concerns about other exchanges loom over market participants’ heads, including questions regarding Bitmex and if they will be affected next. Combobulated fundamental speculation aside, let’s take a look at Bitcoin and it’s current technical standing.
Two Scenarios unfolding, a bull and a bear.
The Bear Scenario
Currently eyed by the majority of the market, a massive bear flag. Though our team is analyzing between the lines.
The bear flag is highlighted with diagonal red line at top of the price channel, and the diagonal green line at the bottom of the channel.
The flag pole is clear cut, the big move down that started on 9/5/18.
Our team isn’t very keen on this formation as the flag has been overextended in duration. Typically bear flags aren’t exaggerated beyond the flag pole.
Regardless of our current standing we will present you the bearish trade parameters, and then proceed to highlighting the bullish trade.
For starters trading inside the chop zone is highest in risk, one should always wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
Option 1: (Confirmation)
Short at the break of the bear flag with a target of previous lows, around $5900.
Option 2: (Hedge)
Short sell when price reached the top of the flag resistance. This would serve as an excellent hedge against a long entry position if one is already long.
Hedge short at the test of the diagonal resistance from the previous two highs.
The bull scenario
Coincides better with our fractal analysis from last month. As we’ve been tracking this formation since 9/5/17, and have been able to trade Bitcoin respectively on Margin.
Compound Fulcrum formation excluded;
We’re observing an ascending triangle formation in play. With two premature false breakouts.
VPVR displays high volume nodes underneath indicating much of price volume support is inside the triangle. According to VPVR trading principles, Low volume nodes (LVN) are more easily traversed by price than (HVN).
In this case HVN is supporting price, and LVN is overhead.
Prognosis and Intra-day Charts:
Thursday the 25th our team logged many bullish intra-day formations and issued many long signals at market retests.
What started as a falling wedge retest, manifested into an inverse head and shoulders. Which resulted into an upwards breakout and demonstrated an Adam and Eve (A,E) formation within a descending broadening wedge. Then price action consolidated into an inverse symmetrical triangle before the “false, premature” breakout.
The following chart is intra-day analysis after Thursday’s breakout through today.
The weekend’s price action resulted into two cascading descending broadening wedges.
Along with 2 test of the golden fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of last move. Our fractal phase 6.
Both these fibonacci level re-tests also coincide with the top of the ascending triangle.
The Bull Trade:
Buy Signals have been issued at fractal lows on Bitcoin Futures, December and March. To our Trading Community.
With entries around $6,022 to be followed by two accumulation signals.
The current bull trade has been an open long, with a most recent signal earlier today.
With an Entry at the retest of the Descending Broadening Wedge, at $6,550.
With an opportunity to stop out early at, $6,530. Only to re-buy the reflexivity zone highlighted on the chart, if price was to proceed to the downside.
Compound Fulcrum Fractal Update
We have been keen on this formation since 9/5, and on 9/25 we published to expect a head-turn for a new direction and heading on BTC within 72hours.
Which coincided with Thursday evening’s breakout.
Upon the breakout to the downside on 9/23, our team extrapolated quantitative values from the previous fulcrum fractal in an attempt to indicate whether or not BTC was still in phase 5, of was entering phase 6.
We utilized duration in terms of time in each phase from April’s Fulcrum, and compared the values to the current fulcrum.
Corresponding values indicated.
Ideal draw-down from phase 5 swing high, to phase 6 swing low, was 7.4% which is currently present on the chart.
And the Corresponding duration value, was 72 hours until a change in direction, which was also indicated by the chart.
In phase 6 we observed many bullish formations intra-day, highlighted by Thursday’s chart formations from the previous section.
Is this a series of coincidences, or is the market ready to rally, yet is currently at a standstill, leave us a comment with your thoughts on the market.